Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if any theatrical film with a worldwide release date in 2026 grosses over $1 billion USD at the global box office. Resolution will be determined using data from Box Office Mojo or The Numbers. The threshold is worldwide gross (domestic + international combined), not domestic-only. Films must have a theatrical release; streaming-only releases do not qualify.

Background

Avatar: Fire and Ash and Lilo & Stitch both crossed $1 billion in 2025, and 2025 saw four billion-dollar releases, the most since 2019. Safe bets for 2026 include Avengers: Doomsday, The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Toy Story 5, and Spider-Man: Brand New Day, all sequels to films that previously crossed $1 billion. Disney is also counting on The Mandalorian and Grogu and live-action Moana, as all Disney Star Wars films have crossed $1 billion except Solo, and Moana 2 reached that milestone in 2024.

Considerations

Predicting annual box office is challenging in a post-COVID-19 world, where theatergoing has lost roughly 25% of its business since 2020. However, 2019 set a record with nine billion-dollar releases; this happened only once in 2021, twice in 2023, and three times in 2022 and 2024, but 2025 had four.

This description was generated by AI.