Resolution criteria

A ceasefire will resolve YES if the US, Israel, and Iran jointly announce a cessation of hostilities between March 11-15, 2026 (inclusive of these dates). As of March 9, 2026, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran on February 28, and Iran has responded with retaliatory strikes. The announcement must come from official government sources (US State Department, Israeli government, or Iranian government statements). Resolution will be based on public announcements from these parties confirming a ceasefire agreement during the specified timeframe. Start and end of dates is based on Iran time.

Background

On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other senior officials. Iran responded with strikes against Israel and American military bases in the Middle East. As of March 6, Iran's foreign minister rejected the idea of a ceasefire or new talks with the Trump administration, and Trump demanded Iran's "unconditional surrender." On March 1, Trump announced that the US had accepted an Iranian proposal to further negotiations.

Considerations

Iran's leadership structure has been thrown into disarray by continued Israeli strikes, complicating who can commit Iran to any ceasefire, and it is unclear whether anyone can enforce a pause across Iran's fractured power centers. Following Khamenei's death, an Interim Leadership Council was established on March 1, and Mojtaba Khamenei was elected as the new Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026.

This description was generated by AI.