MANIFOLD
What will be true for the 2026 F1 season?
46
Ṁ3.2kṀ9.2k
Dec 7
92%
Hamilton gets a podium finish
90%
WDC winner wins their first title
81%
Kim Kardashian shown on F1TV in Ferrari garage during main race or qualifying broadcast
80%
race cancelled or moved due to military operations
70%
Ferrari finishes 2nd in the WCC
70%
A driver gets permanently replaced during the season
68%
A technical directive changes regulations to stop a dominant team or forces to change something important in the cars (e.g., flexible wings in 2025, Ferrari in 2022 with TD39)
65%
A driver misses a race due to health reasons
65%
A team principle gets replaced during the season
59%
Lewis Hamilton wins a feature race
55%
No pit crew injuries during any race.
50%
A RB or RBR driver is swapped out permanently
50%
A rear-end accident because of super-clipping
48%
Hadjar scores at least half as many points as Verstappen
45%
WDC 1 & 2 from same team
43%
Lewis Hamilton announces retirement
39%
Lance Stroll announces retirement
38%
Bottas scores more points than Perez
38%
Eight GP without a full safety car deployment.
34%
Max Verstappen wins the WDC

Market context
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Formula 1
Motorsports
Auto Racing
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@AlexanderTheGreater it must be while the actual session is still going.

bought Ṁ40 YES

@AlexanderTheGreater Easy yes IMO

bought Ṁ10 NO

@BlitzEver assuming she's gonna attend a race.

@AlexanderTheGreater Well, it's a bet I'm hoping to lose

@AlexanderTheGreater I made a separate market for Ferrari exact finishing position in the WCC: https://manifold.markets/BlitzEver/f1-2026-in-which-position-will-ferr?r=QmxpdHpFdmVy

bought Ṁ10 YES

There are 2 "Hamilton Podium". Is it intended to be this way?

@BlitzEver lol, no. Good catch. I resolved the one without trades as NA

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