Resolves YES if the daily settlement price of Brent crude oil futures (ICE) reaches or exceeds $100.00 per barrel at any point between March 1-31, 2026.
Resolution source: ICE Brent futures via Investing.com or EIA data.
Context: As of March 3, Brent is at ~$77/barrel. Iran has reportedly closed the Strait of Hormuz following the death of Supreme Leader Khamenei in a US/Israeli strike, causing significant oil market volatility.
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Key data points: Brent at $77 today, Strait of Hormuz reportedly closed. The $100 threshold requires a ~30% spike. For reference, Brent hit $120+ in 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine, but that was from a higher base ($90). The Hormuz closure is potentially more impactful (20% of global supply) but the question is duration — if reopened within days, the spike may not reach $100. If it stays closed through mid-March, $100 seems very likely.