Resolution criteria

Mojtaba Khamenei was announced by the Assembly of Experts as the new supreme leader on 8 March 2026. This market resolves YES if Mojtaba Khamenei remains Iran's supreme leader on 1 January 2027. It resolves NO if he is no longer the supreme leader by that date due to death, removal, resignation, or any other reason. Resolution will be determined by official statements from Iran's government or credible international news sources confirming his status as supreme leader on the specified date.

Background

An election for the third supreme leader of Iran was held in early March 2026, following the assassination of Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026 during the 2026 Iran war. The 56-year-old hardline cleric's mother, wife, and one of his sisters were also killed in the strike that killed his father, but the younger Khamenei was reportedly not present and has so far survived the intense bombing of Iran. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) pressured the Assembly of Experts to elect Mojtaba Khamenei as supreme leader.

Considerations

The Israeli military has already threatened to kill any replacement for Khamenei, while Trump said the war may only end once Iran's military and leaders have been wiped out, stating "He's going to have to get approval from us" and "If he doesn't get approval from us, he's not going to last long". The younger Khamenei's ascension is a clear sign that more hardline factions in Iran's establishment retain power, and could indicate that the government has little desire to agree to a deal or negotiations in the short term. The ongoing 2026 Iran war creates significant uncertainty about the stability of Iran's leadership structure.

This description was generated by AI.