Victor Davis Hanson analysis - https://youtu.be/gFQ09sTvlDc?si=OW3j75425usImaVD&t=214

Israel is taking out everyone they deem as unacceptable. All those with theocratic credentials and hard liners will be eliminated..Anyone with those credentials who steps up will be eilminated. They are going down a long veto list. After the target list of building, equipment etc.. is done then it will be game on. Who comes out on the ground when there is a pause and what close air chopper and drone support is given. Then IRGC-remainders, Iraqi and Hezbollah thugs confront those willing to go out. You can replace a regime but it is hard to remove a regime and get the next regime that you want. they are leaving military and government leaders who are not highly connected to the theocracy.

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said on national TV today, March 8, 2026. on Fox News Sunday and CBS “Face the Nation” and other appearances). The plan is to get oil and natural gas and fertilizer and all the products from the Gulf flowing through the Straits before too long… one large tanker has already gone through the Straits with no issues at all! We’re massively attritting their ability to strike with missiles and drones, and that rate of attrition will increase in the coming days.”

37% lmao, you people are completely delusional. Not only is this far lower than polymarket, but also the truth is we have no idea whether the regime will survive or not.

The actual coup/revolution will happen once american airstrikes are essentially complete and the sepah + basij mowed down, and until then any CIA asset will stay hidden, protests won't happen, because they're literally ordered to stay hidden until further notice.

What is happening is merely the first phase of regime change, which is the bombing. The second phase is the actual coup, and it will only happen at the opportune moment. The regime isn't solid, the foreign minister literally said IRGC is operating in cells and attacking countries independently. The president said he's sorry for attacks on neighboring countries, said it won't happen. The IRGC went furious over it and continued attacking. Generals reportedly abandoned barracks, etc. A Venezuela situation is impossible due to the religious-ideological nature of the regime.

Anything other than 50% (ie: I don't know) is wishful thinking at this point. If people protested when the regime could massacre them and even hanged rats representing Khaminei after the massacre, imagine when bombing decreases.

60% of your net worth is uninvested. Please, fill my order at 40%.

In an earlier comment from January 13 I laid out reasoning on why I expected that the regime was stuck between a rock and a hard place re: US strikes, which would either lead to demoralization within the military (if the regime did too little) or a full escalatory spiral that I thought would go badly for the regime. This comment contained the line "I do not think a larger conflict against the US would go well for the regime at all" which in retrospect was completely wrong.

The current airstrikes-only campaign is pretty clearly going to result in a US/Israel loss and the solidification of the regime. There's zero evidence of defections within the IRGC and I suspect support for the US / regime change has markedly decreased since January given the terror that this campaign has inflicted on the country. Iran has been able to successfully close the Strait of Hormuz, which is imminently going to set off an inflation shock and make the calculus for continuing the war quite nasty for the Trump admin, and moderate voices within Iran's government such as Pezeshkian seem to have been sidelined, all but guaranteeing another hardliner becomes Supreme Leader. Even Israel seems to have shifted its rhetoric from overthrowing the regime to weakening it at this point.

There is still the possibility of a US ground invasion like the 2003 invasion of Iraq, but I think even this would not result in regime change. Iran is a country with a large population and military, mountainous terrain that is very unfavorable for an invasion and difficult to supply, and high production of drones. I think with current military technology drone warfare makes things highly favorable for defenders (see: Russia / Ukraine), and the US is military is lagging in this respect compared to Iran. I think given the US's enormous military budget they would probably eventually prevail in a protracted enough conflict, but this would come with an extremely high number of casualties and a global economic crisis that I do not think this administration is willing to stomach.

I've decided not to trade in this market anymore as the description criteria are a little more ambiguous than I thought and I don't want to be biased, but if I wasn't the creator I would be loading up on NO shares. I expect the campaign to stop in late March or early April with the regime still firmly in place (although presiding over an even more wrecked economy). This is looking like yet another total @SemioticRivalry victory.

Beginning to doubt my YES prediction:

https://x.com/i/status/2030263835139940704

NEW: A classified report by the National Intelligence Council, representing the collective wisdom of America's 18 intelligence agencies, found that even a large-scale assault on Iran would be unlikely to oust its entrenched military and clerical establishment 🧵

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2026/03/07/iran-intelligence-report-unlikely-oust-regime/

Intel report warns large-scale war ‘unlikely’ to oust Iran’s regime

Guys regime change seems really hard

https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-defense-strategy-khamenei-fe9aeaf9

@SemioticRivalry WSJ article (March 6, 2026) explicitly describes Iran’s post-2025 “high-risk, no-limits” strategy: after the June 2025 12-day war exposed the failures of limited responses, Khamenei’s circle decided on deliberate regional escalation to make the war unbearably costly for everyone (oil at $150+, global supply chains hit). They warned Gulf states privately they would be “first in line” and then executed it — hitting GCC harder and faster than many expected. This was not caving; it was the opposite of restraint.
New development TODAY (March 7): President Masoud Pezeshkian publicly apologized to Gulf neighbors and announced Iran will stop attacking them “unless they were the source of an attack on Iran.” This looks like a partial cave/restraint signal to prevent total regional blowback and buy time, but it came after weeks of aggressive expansion, not before. Iran’s own strategy deliberately hit every GCC state (hotels in Dubai, Burj Al Arab, Saudi Ras Tanura refinery, UAE Jebel Ali/Fujeirah ports, Qatar Ras Laffan LNG, etc.), shattering years of detente. GCC states had repeatedly assured Iran they would not allow U.S./Israeli use of their bases/airspace. In response, they have issued joint condemnations, vowed self-defense (including possible counter-strikes on Iranian launch sites), banded together, and are now coordinating closely with the U.S. GCC-Iran relations are at their worst in decades. UAE and Saudi Arabia describe the attacks as betrayal.

@SemioticRivalry back in the day all you needed was like 3-5 virile British psychopaths and 100k pounds sterling

https://x.com/EricLDaugh/status/2029983602595815672?s=20 Karoline Leavitt says "To obliterate the Iranian regime will be a very good thing for the energy and oil markets and for oil prices across the globe in the long term when you no longer have a terrorist regime that is restricting the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz and to the rest of the world"

Diplomatic calibration. Rubio was reassuring Arab partners who fear a power vacuum or Kurdish civil-war spillover. Trump publicly demanded unconditional surrender. Plan- Permanently destroy Iran’s ability to threaten the region with missiles and drones. Strip the shield of nuclear program (surrender or force to get enriched uranium and inspectors). Create conditions for internal collapse or leadership change. Control the oil for leverage over China. Regime change can unlock natural gas for extra trillions in AI..can't do that without regime change and full puppet gov't . https://x.com/World_Insights1/status/2029779899943375344?s=20

@SemioticRivalry I thought Rubio was the brains of the operation holy shit hahahahah

@SemioticRivalry Trump has said that the outcome in Venezuela was a good model, so maybe that's what they mean?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 If they wanted to attempt the outcome from Venezuela, in which their victory was overwhelmingly symbolic, they should have attempted an operation 1% or more similar to what they did in Venezuela.

@Panfilo Lol, good point.

As a website that loves scaling laws....

Iran missiles launched per day

@FergusArgyll source?

Israel-based i24NEWS (and other sources) reports that Iraqi Kurdish forces have 'launched a ground military offensive into Iran'

Interesting market to follow!

Before operation uwu furby my credence was at 15%. Now it's closer to 30%. I can see international media saying Iran has "descended into total anarchy" and the market creator resolving Yes, though I still don't think it's likely. As long as there is concerted military output and no clear successor, it's hard to argue that the islamic Republic has fallen, just that they're embattled and busy. Decentralization is not collapse.

@Panfilo i haven't thought too much about the resolution here, but while detailed resolution criteria are nice, there's a real trade-off here bc those details are often in tension.

broad consensus among credible international media (e.g. Reuters, AP, BBC, NYT) that the core institutions of the Islamic Republic—such as the Supreme Leader, Guardian Council, or IRGC under clerical control—have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced

that's a very high bar! "core institutions" is very broad.

and that the regime has lost sovereign authority over the majority of the population within Iran

potentially a lower bar, covered by many civil war scenarios where the regime is still quite coherent/intact.

FWIW, my interpretation is that the description has always said "and" for these conditions, which makes this straightforward—both must be true, and the higher bar applies. but this is a common setup that causes contention (the creator enumerates a qualifying scenario that occurs, but also includes a condition that the qualifying scenario does not meet)

@Ziddletwix fwiw I copied the description from someone else's 2025 version of this market, but i agree with your reading, and i would resolve NO in a scenario like the syrian civil war where the regime still exists but no longer controls the entire country