If there are nuclear detonations by the end of 2026, by who?

MANIFOLD

Ṁ250Ṁ2.5k

Dec 31

65%

🇰🇵 North Korea

22%

🇮🇱 Israel

19%

🇺🇸 United States

16%

🇨🇳 China

14%

🇮🇳 India

13%

🇷🇺 Russia

🇵🇰 Pakistan

🇬🇧 United Kingdom

🇫🇷 France

🇮🇷 Iran

If there is a nuclear detonation in 2026, resolves YES to all countries listed that detonate nuclear weapons in 2026, and NO to all countries that didn't. Otherwise, all options resolve N/A.

Update 2026-03-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Nuclear tests (non-combat detonations) count toward resolution, not just wartime use.

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It counts if its not used in war, but tested, correct?

@Qubits yes

bought Ṁ30 NO

If none detonate then it all resolves to no right?

@Ebcc1 All resolve N/A if there are no detonations, this is conditional on someone detonating

@Tetraspace well that’s a pain

@Tetraspace Why do that instead of just resolving everything to no?

@Cactus A nuclear detonation is unlikely, so making it conditional on a nuclear detonation means the probabilities are in the range [0,1] instead of being squeezed into [0,0.1] or whatever the probability of a nuclear detonation is

@Tetraspace oh true, ignore me

@Tetraspace I agree with this, however, I am upset that I ended up with a loss on that account. I guess I just have to hope there are no nuclear detonations which I was betting on anyways except in this case my upside is capped. And I have to wait until eoy. Mistake on my behalf but I guess at least it injects liquidity.