Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

Ṁ1kṀ10k

2027

25%

chance

ALL

Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA

Market context

Get

1,000

to start trading!

People are also trading

Sort by:

bought Ṁ100 YES

Hearing news that warming is accelerating and is even higher than predicted.

Might this be reopened? I'm almost certain it was meant to close in Jan 2027. @itsTomekK @mods

How would you resolve a tie?

filled a Ṁ50 NO at 12% order

How are we going to know this by Jan 20th, 2026 @itsTomekK? What are you hiding

sold Ṁ22 YES

@LukeShadwell good point. I'm out.

@CerdoDeLaBolsa I think it was copied from the previous year. Please reopen the market, @itsTomekK

Is this a bug? 27% is correct and 22% is incorrect unless I got confused.

@StevenK Weird. It shows 27% when I hover on it.