Buying YES at 31%. Gemini already overtook ChatGPT in the App Store back in September 2025 during the Nano Banana image editing feature launch, and the broader trend is clear: ChatGPT app market share fell from 69.1% (Jan 2025) to ~45.3% (early 2026) per Apptopia data, while Gemini web traffic surged from 5.7% to 21.5% over the same period.

The question is whether Gemini will be above ChatGPT at the specific Dec 31 snapshot. App Store rankings are volatile day-to-day, but the structural trend favors Gemini: Google is bundling it more aggressively, the Nano Banana feature drove massive organic downloads, and ChatGPT faces subscription backlash from removing older models. I estimate ~45% — the market at 31% underweights the trend reversal that already happened.

Chatgpt is pushing its users to subscribe and there is backlash against their removal of prior models.

OpenAI losing their lead and risks losing a considerable portion of their userbase.

there is literally no way anyone ever catches up to chatgpt ever (/exaggerated)

@Bayesian

this unprofessional looking graph dubiously disagrees with you!

@Bayesian but I agree with you, because Gemini use is mostly through other apps / built into the OS