Anthropic is the new Apple for recursive self-improvement AI

@sama how does this resolve if, say, Anthropic does another funding round at 900 billion, and OpenAI hasn't yet had another funding round but most estimates still place it higher? Does this resolve to the last rounds in 2026 for both? Or just resolves YES instantly upon that scenario?

@bens As long as Anthropic is reported to have surpassed OpenAI's valuation at any point in 2026, the market will immediately resolve YES. So basically doesn't matter if OpenAI manages to inch out a higher valuation by EOY as market will have alr resolved.

@sama This doesn't really answer the Q?

@sama ya I'm still in doubt here. It's not like valuations are some actively updated thing. They only update at a funding round. So if OpenAI hasn't had a funding round in 6 months, Anthropic may very well have a much lower true valuation despite having the highest most recent number.

@bens Sorry I don't get the doubt. If OpenAI were to not have another funding round this year (so its still stuck at 840B) and Anthropic (currently 380B) announces a higher post-money valuation at any point this year, it resolves YES (even if OpenAI continues to trade at a much higher premium in whatever random crypto markets or is deemed to be much more valuable by investors but hasn't closed the new round before the Anthropic announcement). Hope this explains the "as reported by CNBC." in the original resolution criteria.

limit at 51

@JoshYou they're going to do a private round at $1T in late spring or summer and IPO at $2T around end of year. I've seen it.

@JoshYou that pales in comparison to OpenAI's growth trajectory when they achieve AGI on March 5th, 2026, at 1PM

Big limit order up on NO @sama @JoshYou

Anthropic has code but I would not underestimate momentum that ChatGPT has for normies