Tracks the ongoing US-Iran war's airstrikes, naval clashes, and fallout from Khamenei's killing. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz after US sank its warships and hit nuclear sites.
Commands
/add-option <idea> — suggest a new prop. AI reviews and adds if unique and interesting.
/clarify-resolution <question> — ask what an option means and how it resolves. AI updates the text if ambiguous
/check-resolutions <evidence> — request resolution check. Bad faith = 1 week block.
AI-managed market.
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@patrik Resolved option 6 to YES due to clear evidence from major news outlets that Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader on March 8, 2026. No other options have clear, definitive evidence for resolution at this time.
Resolved: - #6 Mojtaba Khamenei named Supreme Leader by March 31, 2026 -> YES: Mojtaba Khamenei was named Supreme Leader by the Assembly of Experts on March 8, 2026, following the assassination of his father Ali Khamenei, as confirmed by multiple sources including CNN, Al Jazeera, NYT, Reuters, and Wikipedia.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: US national average regular gasoline price exceeds $5/gallon by June 1, 2026
Unique from existing oil price markets; timely given recent surges in gas prices due to Iran conflict (currently ~$3.40, up sharply); relevant economic impact for Iran-US followers; clearly resolvable via AAA or EIA data.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Brent crude stays above $100/bbl through December 31, 2026
Unique from the existing short-term $200 spike market, as this covers sustained prices at a lower threshold through year-end. Highly timely and relevant given recent surges to over $100/bbl amid Iran-US conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Clear, resolvable via daily Brent settlement prices (e.g., ICE Futures Europe).
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: US activates military draft by December 31, 2026
This is unique from existing options, highly relevant and timely amid current US-Iran conflict escalation and public discussions on manpower needs, and forms a concrete, resolvable proposition based on official activation of conscription.
@GuyCohen Your option was accepted and added as: Major Iran-linked terrorist attack on U.S. soil by December 31, 2026
This is unique from existing options, highly relevant to Iran-US tensions given recent warnings about Iranian proxies and sleeper cells, and can be resolved based on official attributions of major attacks (e.g., multiple fatalities, significant damage).
@patrik #9 US or Israel uses a nuclear weapon against Iran in 2026 This option resolves YES if the US or Israel detonates at least one nuclear weapon in a military strike targeting Iranian territory, forces, or assets (including submarines, ships, or aircraft) during calendar year 2026 (January 1 to December 31). 'Detonates' means a nuclear explosion occurs, confirmed by physical effects like blast damage, radiation, or electromagnetic pulse attributable to a nuclear device. Evidence includes: official government statements from the US, Israel, or Iran; seismic readings from the CTBTO; satellite imagery from reliable sources (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs); IAEA or UN verification; or consensus reporting from major outlets like Reuters, AP, BBC confirming the event with specifics on location and yield. It does NOT qualify if: the weapon is launched but fails to detonate; used in testing unrelated to Iran; or targeting non-Iranian proxies without clear Iranian attribution. Resolves NO if no such event occurs by end of 2026.
Updated: US or Israel uses a nuclear weapon against Iran in 2026 -> US or Israel detonates a nuclear weapon targeting Iran in 2026
/add-option US or Israel use a nuclear weapon against Iran in 2026
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@patrik #8 Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026 This option resolves YES if there is credible public evidence that Iran has successfully developed a functional nuclear weapon through its own research, enrichment, weaponization, and assembly efforts before January 1, 2027. 'Develops' specifically refers to indigenous capability, not acquiring a completed weapon, components, or fissile material transferred from another country (e.g., North Korea, Pakistan, or Russia).
Qualifying evidence includes: an Iranian nuclear test detonation; IAEA confirmation of a weaponized device produced by Iran; or consensus from major intelligence agencies (US, Israel, etc.) that Iran has crossed the weaponization threshold domestically. Statements by Iranian officials must be corroborated.
If Iran receives a foreign-supplied nuclear weapon, even if assembled or used, it resolves NO, as that is acquisition, not development. NO if no such evidence exists by the deadline.
Updated: Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026 -> Iran indigenously develops a functional nuclear weapon before end of 2026
@patrik Your option was accepted and added as: Iran develops a nuclear weapon before end of 2026
Accepted. This is unique from existing options, highly timely and relevant amid recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites and widespread speculation on X about imminent nuclear developments. It's concrete and resolvable based on credible reporting from IAEA, US intelligence, or a confirmed test.