MANIFOLD
If Trump wins, will Trump be found guilty of a crime before the end of 2026?
15
Ṁ280Ṁ568
2027
10%
chance

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
Sort by:

Would impeachment and conviction by the Senate count?

@EvanDaniel never knew that counted as a crime, is it one?

@strutheo "High crimes and misdemeanors" is part of the relevant language in the Constitution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High_crimes_and_misdemeanors#United_States

@EvanDaniel hm but does that mean he can be impeached for something other than high crimes and misdemeanors

i guess if they NAME the crime?

can congress find him GUILTY of a crime though?

@strutheo I think I'd lean toward is shouldn't count -- "high crimes and misdemeanors" is a term of art, and "high crimes" are different than "crimes", not a subset. Even though the language of "guilty" and "convict" is shared, they're not really the same thing.

Claude has me at least somewhat convinced that's the better approach for a prediction market:

https://claude.ai/share/a442ce7b-f82c-493a-a123-24dd58f2f3c8

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy